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Nature is awesome, but so is science. Shame about the politics.

By Spanish Bill

It is difficult to imagine, let alone recall, a more destructive and extensive natural disaster than the Indian Ocean Tsunami of 2004. But it’s not impossible.

The pre-Greek Minoan civilization of Crete was probably levelled by a combination of earthquakes, volcanic explosions, and tidal waves in around 1,500 BC.

And the Sumerian epic of Gilgamesh -- which is suspiciously similar to the story of Noah’s Ark -- tells us there was a flood in around 3,000 BC that wiped out much of early human civilization.

More recently -- in 1970 -- floods whipped up by cyclones killed 300,000 in Bangladesh. Another 3.7 million people died from disease, starvation, or drowning when the Yangtze River burst its banks in 1931.

And the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 and its resultant tsunami killed 100,000 and was felt as far north as Cornwall.

Then there are the diseases that have ravaged our planet in intermittent waves and which also kill millions on a regular basis:

From the Black Death imported from China in the 14th Century, which killed 25 million Europeans in five years, to the measles and influenza epidemics that wiped out millions of native Americans after La Conquista in the 15th and 16th centuries and the AIDS pandemic now extinguishing life in southern Africa.

Human suffering on a vast scale is part and parcel of human history.

Ultimately, it can make us stronger because human beings are extraordinarily resourceful creatures and we learn from the experience.

By we, I mean the human race.

For some families and local communities, of course, things will never be the same.

And yet, the densely populated Indian Ocean rim devastated by recent events will bounce back, eventually, with the help of an international community tangibly moved by a sense of common humanity. Goodwill to all people – it doesn’t happen often.

How else, for example, do we explain the record amounts of money raised by British charities in recent days, which has outstripped government pledges of aid?   

Pity a spectacularly gruesome set of movies shot on hundreds of tourist camcorders was required to foster such outpourings of global brotherhood.

Six million of our fellow human beings -- a third of them young children -- die each year from malaria and AIDS-related infections each year.

That too could be prevented, with the right political will.

We can’t stop the earth’s tectonic plates from moving but we can defend ourselves from whatever nature throws at us.

I stick two fingers up to those who say this is all part of God’s plan, inshallah. Fuck such fatalism.

I, for one, am glad Eve persuaded Adam to eat an apple from the tree of knowledge.

Ignorance is not my idea of bliss. And if one day I’m ever lying on a beach and I notice the tide has suddenly disappeared, I’ll know what to do: run for the hills.

Is it any coincidence that the two big earthquakes which struck San Francisco in 1989 and Los Angeles in 1994 killed just 120 people in total?

5,000 were killed in 1995 when another earthquake struck another densely populated area around Kobe in Japan.

But even that is relatively small compared to the body count elsewhere.

30,000 people perished when a less violent earthquake razed the town of Bam in a more lightly populated area of Iran almost a year to the hour before the earthquake near Aceh.

It doesn’t take a Nobel prize winner to work out the reason behind the difference in numbers killed: inferior buildings (most of the victims were asleep in both the Bam and Kobe earthquakes).

It follows that science can tame nature to a significant life-saving degree. It just depends on what our priorities are and whether we’re switched on.

An early warning system, as is well documented, would have doubtless saved many lives – not just in southern India and Sri Lanka, where thousands died after the tsunami hit their shores 2-3 hours after the initial earthquake, but also in Thailand, which felt it after just over an hour.

It took 5-6 hours to hit east Africa, where more people perished.

An early warning system has been in place for the Pacific Ocean since a tidal wave washed over Hawaii in 1946 and has effectively handled the three biggest tsunami-generating earthquakes in recent times.

The system monitors hundreds of sea bottom sensors that detect earthquakes and swelling water and many more coastline gauges that measure the height and speed of waves.

Access to technology is a thorny issue, but people are crying out for effective and apolitical global leadership at a time when the world is dangerously divided.

At least I think they are.

But a simple phone call to Colombo, Delhi, et al, or a more tsunami-savvy international media could surely have also made a difference. Not everyone has access to CNN and the BBC, but hotels do and they surely could have raised more of an alarm. Many people died needlessly.

It is not only Washington that needs to pull its fingers out. The Indian Ocean Tsunami wasn't just an act of God, nature, whatever you want to call it, it was also a damning indictment of 21st century politics and society.

January 2, 2005 | Permalink

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Comments

Thanks for your kind words Jag, much appreciated. However, I would suggest that if you can admit that "a few" lives could have been saved if people privy to key information had shared it more effectively, it's then a very small step to saying thousands could have been saved.

Those in Aceh and Nicobar probably didn't stand a chance, although when you read about readily available products like QuakeAlert, which for about $200 claims to be able to warn its owner of an impending earthquake, you gotta wonder.

Either way, most of those killed in Thailand, it seems, were sunbathers or staying in beachfront hotels. Getting off the beach and heading inland a few hundred metres or to the highest nearby ground might have been enough in many cases (as was the case here: http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=oddlyEnoughNews&storyID=7219530.

Most of those killed in India, Sri Lanka, Somalia, were also living on the sea-edge and hit some considerable time later. In addition, it's noticeable that very low-lying and flood-vulnerable areas like the Maldives and Bangladesh suffered relatively few deaths. I would wager that that’s partly because the local populations and institutions were less ignorant of the dangers and better prepared.

You’ve got to ask yourself why the region’s governments dragged their feet for as long as they did when it came to agreeing and putting in place an early tsunami warning system.  The costs were never exorbitant, and at its most basic all that was required were open lines of communication, as this terribly sad farce shows:href="http://www.reuters.co.uk/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=7183560

If a tsunami had been unleashed in the Gulf of Mexico to such a devastating effect, I have a strong feeling someone somewhere would be getting sued.

And yet, as Reid Basher of the U.N. Platform for the Promotion of Early Warning says, it is too convenient and somewhat unfair to lay the blame on local officialdom "It is easy to be wise after the event, but we must remember that the Indian Ocean has not had a major tsunami for over a century," he recently said. “It is not entirely surprising that the governments there had no warning system in place. They had many other priorities."

Fair enough. Still, would we be so forgiving if a deadly tsunami hit our time zone? No way. Not now. Even before the events of Dec. 26 2004, I cannot even begin to conceive how a massive earthquake in the North Atlantic might smash into the western Europe or the U.S. East Coast without some advance warning being first relayed to the local populations by the BBC, TV1, Reuters, etc. But that’s not to be taken for granted, least of all in the less developed south Atlantic.

So how comes there’s no talk of an early warning system for the Atlantic and even Mediterranean (don’t scoff: the experts have for years warned of the tsunami threat)? So it doesn’t happen that often – it didn’t in the Indian Ocean either.

Posted by: Spanish Bill | Jan 6, 2005 6:41:53 PM

Extremely thought-provoking. And having read it twice now - I find it very hard to disagree with everything you said.

I do beg to differ on the "notifying BBC or CNN" bit - because I think these institutions would probably have taken a lot longer than it would have helped to verify such news (remember what the Dr. Kelly affair did to the BBC regarding accuracy of news reporters) - but even if immediately broadcast to hotels in those regions I'm not sure a great number of people would have reacted in time - or news spread quickly enough to save many. Maybe a few - I know it sounds callous to speak so negatively about it possible having saved a few - but the enormity of the numbers makes one speak in such terms - and I hate myself for saying it that way.

Also: I happened to pick up a copy of the Mail on Sunday today - and read an interesting article/interview with the chap in the USA who detected the Earthquake first - and if the report is to be believed - he apparently tried desperately to spread the news as best as he could in the region but failed and apparently wept when he saw the news reports from the affected regions a few hours later.

You're absolutely right though - it *is* an indictment. And lessons will be learned. I hope. And it is indeed the fact that we know so much about it that makes it more galling than other, perhaps more significant in human scale terms, disasters - controllable or otherwise.

Posted by: Jag | Jan 3, 2005 12:14:11 AM

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